Nations of the world are in denial

If they have any sense, the leaders of the world will do well to play down expectations for next winter’s climate change conference in México. The conference in Copenhagen left a great many people disappointed. I predicted that the conference would not be successful, as it seemed to me that the nations of the world needed more time. They might not be in climate change denial, but they are certainly in denial that they are doing anything worthwhile to protect us from climate change.

So now all the leading emitters of greenhouse gases are trying to reassure the world (and their own populations) that they will do something about climate change. China promises to reduce its “carbon intensity” by 40 to 50% by 2020. Carbon intensity is a measure of emissions per joule of energy, so assuming the population of China continues to grow and that China continues to develop its economy rapidly with close to double digit growth there will be little or no reduction of greenhouse gases from China. India’s promise to reduce carbon intensity by 20% probably will mean in practice a rise in emissions.

The United States has an aim to cut emissions by 17% from 2005 levels. In real language the “aim” requires a less than 10% cut from today’s emissions. No evidence of climate change leadership there, Mr Obama.

The European Union promises 20% cuts in emissions from 1990 figures– rising to 30% if everyone else cuts their emissions. Japan promises 25% on the same basis.  Brazil, curiously, promises to cut from levels that they now project. That is an odd way of doing things.

Frankly, fixing rapid climate change it is not about promising anything, but it is about carrying out measures. Measures will require strictly enforced laws about emissions and carbon dioxide intensity of energy and a whole host of other related matters. The nations of the world may not be climate change deniers but they are all certainly in denial.